COA Analysis and Recommendations

Overview

In the paper titled “Rangers: Selected Combat Operations in World War II,” Dr. Michael J. King notes that “The rescue of 511 American and Allied prisoners from a Japanese POW compound near Cabanatuan in the Philippines by elements of the 6th Ranger Battalion, reinforced by Alamo Scouts and Filipino guerrillas, was the most complex operation that Rangers conducted during World War II. It was also one of the most successful.” That rescue has been chronicled in the 2005 movie The Great Raid and several books including Hour of Redemption by Forrest Bryant Johnson, The Ghost Soldiers by Hampton Sides, and is the focus of Chapter 6 of King’s work. Although the movie and other references may help you understand the scenario more, this scenario is based solely on the information provided in King’s work.

Mission Analysis

Through mission analysis, the commander and staff should understand the problem and the resources available to solve that problem. Each staff member is responsible for conducting his or her own running staff estimate that provides very detailed information within his or her area of responsibility. The staff then analyzes that information and synthesizes (packages) it into the mission analysis brief. The essence of staff work involves distilling mountains of information into nuggets of knowledge. One method through which staff officers do this is to process the facts (WHAT) into information (by asking SO WHAT?), analyze the information to increase knowledge (by asking WHICH MEANS?), and apply judgment to gain an understanding (by asking THEREFORE?)

Deliverable #1.  Running Estimate (3 double spaced pages)

You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR of what actually occurred (in the past tense). Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate (FM 6-0 Chapter 8), as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:

• Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.

• How terrain and weather affect the operation.

• Movement rates that balance speed and security. • The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.

• The anticipated distances covered by, rates of movement for and time required to:

o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp

o actions on the objective

o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point

o Japanese counterattacks

• How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Force can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.

Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the decision to move or murder the POWs, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group.

The goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hours before needing two hours for food and rest could be helpful to LTC Mucci and his staff.

This map depicts a larger area of Luzon than that depicted in Ranger Paper.  It includes terrain features and 6th Army dispositions which should be helpful to you while completing requirements 1 and 7. Note that the total distance from Calasiao to the prison is about 75 miles, and the distance from Calasiao to Guimba is about 44 miles, rather than 75 miles as King reports.

Deliverable #2.  The Problem (1 ½ double-spaced pages) 

Refer FM 6-0, paragraphs 9-61 to 9-64 and the problem framing student aid, articulate LTC Mucci’s problem including at least ONE critical element for each mission variable (METT-TC).

Deliverable #3. Mission Statement (One double-spaced page)

While developing his commander’s estimate, LTC Mucci brainstormed three different words to use for his ESSENTIAL TASK in the mission statement: Liberate, Raid, Secure. Referring to FM 6-0 (paragraphs 9-65 to 9-68) and citing your references, (a) provide a current US Army doctrinal definition for EACH of the three words (or dictionary definition if no doctrinal definition exists), and then (b) select and justify which one to include as the essential task in the Rangers mission statement. Note: You are not required to write a mission statement—only to select and justify which one word LTC Mucci should use as the essential task in his mission statement.

COA Development

“A COA is a broad potential solution to an identified problem” (FM 6-0 paragraph 9-82). Serving initially as lead planner, Captain Robert Prince developed a broad plan which included a truck movement, dismounted infiltration, flawless actions at the POW camp, and an elaborate exfiltration. With virtually no room for error, CPT Prince refined and rehearsed the plan to resource his main effort, nest the supporting efforts, and eliminate wasted efforts. As a result, every Ranger, Alamo Scout and Guerrilla in every platoon and special element contributed to the success of the mission.

Deliverable #4.  Purpose and Task (One double-spaced page)

See example response. You must write in sentences rather than bulletized form.) Six distinct elements worked together to accomplish this mission:

1) the Filipino Civilians

2) the Filipino Guerrillas

3) the Alamo Scouts

4) 1st Platoon Charlie Company

5) 2nd Platoon Charlie Company

6) 2nd Platoon Foxtrot Company

 For each element, (a) list the most important contribution (TASK) that it made during the operation, (b) explain why that contribution was needed (PURPOSE), and (c) explain when that contribution was synchronized (SYNCH) with at least ONE other element’s action that preceded, followed or occurred concurrent with it.

When possible, use a tactical mission task from current US Army doctrine, even if the author did not use a proper task. ADP 1-02 defines tactical mission tasks in Chapter 1. Example response for the US Army Air Force: “At 1840, three-quarters of an hour before the attack was to begin,” (King p 64) (SYNCH) the American airplane disrupted (TASK) the Japanese guards so that the Rangers could crawl close to the POW camp undetected (PURPOSE)

Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIR)

Commanders use information and judgment to make decisions. In many instances, several pieces of information contribute to one decision. In those instances, the commander may arrange the information in an IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence, illustrated by this simple example: IF my team is still in the playoff hunt AND my brother can purchase game tickets AND the winter roads are clear enough to drive OR I can afford train tickets THEN I will go to the last regular season game Each CCIR should ask a single question about the unit or other friendly forces (FFIR) or the enemy or terrain (PIR).

Deliverable #5: Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (One-half of a double-spaced page)

It is now noon on 30 January 1945. Referring to FM 6-0 (paragraphs 9-46 to 9-52) construct a logical IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence justifying LTC Mucci’s decision to assault on 30 January. You are not required to include OR in your response, but should include elements related to the enemy, your own multinational force, the POWs, and local support.

Commander’s Judgment

While CCIR helps the commander make an anticipated decision, commanders must often make decisions that they and their staffs did not anticipate. LTC Mucci’s decision to delay his actions on the objective until 30 January 1945 may have been his most difficult and most important decision. In hindsight, his judgment was correct. Despite the benefits, LTC Mucci accepted the risk that the Japanese would detect his force, or sense that 6th Army was too close and consequently kill or move the POWs.

Deliverable #6: Commander’s Judgment (One-half of a double-spaced page) Compare and contrast LTC Mucci’s decision to delay actions on the objective on 29 Jan with his decision to conduct actions on the objective on 30 Jan. In other words, explain how the conditions on 29 Jan differed from those on 30 Jan, and why those differences prompted LTC Mucci’s decision to delay on 29 Jan and assault on 30 Jan.

COA Analysis, Comparison and Recommendation

According to paragraph 9-122 of FM 6- 0: “War-gaming is a disciplined process, with rules and steps that attempt to visualize the flow of the operation, given the force’s strengths and dispositions, enemy’s capabilities and possible COAs, impact and requirements of civilians in the AO, and other aspects of the situation.” Paragraph 9-121 of FM 6-0 states “COA analysis enables commanders and staffs to identify difficulties or coordination problems as well as probable consequences of planned actions for each COA being considered. It helps them think through the tentative plan. COA analysis may require commanders and staffs to revisit parts of a COA as discrepancies arise. COA analysis not only appraises the quality of each COA but also uncovers potential execution problems, decisions, and contingencies. In addition, COA analysis influences how commanders and staffs understand a problem and may require the planning process to restart.”

Deliverable #7: COA Analysis (Wargame), Comparison & Recommendation (3 double-spaced pages)

On 27 January, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.” • Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow. • Stay in the prison and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team* to link up with us. • Move away from the prison to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team* to link up with us. A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & define the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation. Refer to FM 6-0 (paragraphs 9-80 and 9-121 to 9-187) * The regimental combat team is comprised of three infantry battalions, a field artillery battalion, and a tank company. The regiment’s commander estimates he can reach Balincarin in fourteen hours, or the POW camp in twenty-two hours, after the Rangers initiate their assault on camp. He plans to follow the same general route the Rangers used for the infiltration.

a. List facts (F) and assumptions (A) which help you analyze the courses of action. Place all facts and assumptions before the analysis of your COAs, rather than listing (and repeating) facts for each COA.

b. Establish three to five measurable evaluation criteria. If you were buying a car, you might consider cost, carrying capacity, and fuel economy. DO NOT USE SCREENING CRITERIA. LTC Mucci feels that each of HIS suggestions is feasible, suitable, distinguishable and acceptable to him. None is yet complete, but he is confident his staff will make them so. Likewise, broad undefined terms such as the Principles of War or Elements of Combat Power are normally not useful criteria for evaluating a unique problem. As in an experiment or car purchase, evaluation criteria must be variables (such as cost, fuel economy and safety rating) rather than constants (number of tires and presence of a steering wheel). In this scenario, the speed of 6th Army’s unopposed advance during daylight is a constant (and should be listed as a fact or assumption); while the time until the POWs and Rangers link-up with 6th Army is different for each COA and could serve as a useful evaluation criteria.

c. Analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion.

• Although there is a tendency to organize the course of action analysis by the evaluation criteria, Step 4 of the MDMP (FM 6-0) focuses on an analysis by course of action.

• Therefore you should NOT have a paragraph in which you analyze the “Time from initiation of the assault until completion of link-up with 6th Army” in which you use comparative terms (such as fastest and slowest), and then have another paragraph which analyzes the COA against another evaluation criterion.

• Instead, you should analyze the probable outcome of each COA against the evaluation criteria (be sure to include ALL of the criteria), using the facts and assumptions. For example, if you assume that without carts the POWs could walk at 1 mph during daylight and .5 mph at night, and further assume that the Rangers will begin their assault at 2000 hrs, then through analysis you may estimate that the POWs and Rangers could get to Guimba in about 60 hours.

• Your analysis should be approximately a half-page for each COA.

d. Compare the COAs to each other using a decision matrix. Clearly indicate if high or low scores are best, and explain any weighting you apply. Refer to the sample decision matrix in Table 9-7 on page 9-40 of FM 6-0.

e. Make and justify a recommendation.