Health Statistics Questions

Note 1: Show all your work to get credit. Write your solutions clearly and neatly.

Note 2: Question 1 worth 20 points and questions 2 and 3 worth 15 points each.

Question 1

Chapter 7: Your hospital has applied for certification as a level 1 stroke center. It is critical that the following project is completed in 18 weeks, before the next Joint Commission survey. Project activity times are listed in the table below.

Activity	Immediate Predecessors	Normal Time (NT) (weeks)	Normal Cost (NC) ($)	Crash Time (CT) (weeks)	Crash Cost (CC) ($)
A	—	5	$600	3	$1,200
B	A	6	$200	4	$600
C	—	9	$500	6	$950
D	C	3	$800	2	$1,200
E	D	7	$1,600	5	$2,800
F	B, D	5	$200	4	$400
G	F	4	$400	3	$750

 

Question 2

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
ED Visits	74,000	73,800	75,600	76,400	78,000	77,300	79,200	78,000	81,000	81,500

Chapter 8: An emergency department of a local hospital would like to forecast the number of visits for the next year. The number of visits for the department over the past 10 years are shown in the following table.

1. Develop a three-year simple moving average forecast for years 4 through 10.
   1. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast for years 2 through 10 using a forecast of 75,000 visits for year 1 and a = 0.60.
   1. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for each of the forecasting methods studied in parts a and b with error measurement beginning in year 4. Based on your results, which forecasting method would yield the best results and why? Using that method, what is the forecast of ED visits for next year.

Question 3

Chapter 8: Read and watch the video for the case “Forecasting and Supply Chain Management at Deckers Outdoor Corporation” (pages 323&324) and answer the following questions:

1. What factors make forecasting at Deckers particularly challenging?
2. How can forecasts be made for seasonal, fashionable products for which there is no history file?
3. Deckers plans to expand internationally, thereby increasing the volume of shoes it must manage in the supply chain and the pattern of material flows. What implications does this strategy have on forecasting?